Aika online citizen quest promotion1/26/2024 ![]() At the same time, the Philippines must all the while maintain constructive relations with other South East Asian claimants. On the other, geography and economic imperatives impel the archipelago to find a modus vivendi with Beijing. On one hand, Manila is tied to Washington by an alliance and longstanding cultural affinities. ![]() and episodic tensions with neighbours, one of which is a rising great power, is particularly challenging. On 30 July 2021, Duterte unfroze the Visiting Forces Agreement, thus bringing it formally back into force.ĭeveloping a coherent vision for the South China Sea while managing a treaty alliance with the U.S. A March 2021 quarrel around Whitsun Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands, which saw Chinese ships mass by the hundreds, led to another wave of anti-China sentiment in the Philippines and appears to have further strained relations. subsequently began terming China’s claims in the Sea “unlawful”, reaffirmed its alliance with the Philippines and confirmed that the Mutual Defence Treaty between Manila and Washington encompasses attacks on Philippine forces or vessels in the Sea. In June 2020, Duterte suspended the cancellation. to station military personnel in the Philippines and conduct joint exercises with Manila. More consequentially, Duterte has reversed his abrupt February 2020 cancellation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S., which allows the U.S. ![]() It has sent diplomatic protest notes to China in response to perceived territorial violations in the Sea. Since late 2019, Manila has been less willing to ignore Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. Many in the Philippines are increasingly sceptical of rapprochement with China if it entails giving up claims to various disputed maritime features. ![]() Tangible economic benefits from overtures to Beijing, especially promised infrastructure projects, have fallen short of expectations and major gains are not expected before Duterte’s term ends in 2022. China’s ships prowl the Philippine exclusive economic zone without interruption, and Filipino boats often cannot reach traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal due to Chinese harassment. By proceeding cautiously, the Philippines hoped to prevent the maritime dispute from damaging its bilateral relationship with the region’s dominant economic and military power.įive years into Duterte’s presidency, however, irritants remain. Manila has since pursued a flexible strategy, often perceived by local and international observers alike as erratic, aiming to strengthen ties with Beijing for the sake of economic growth. Consistent with this approach, he downplayed Manila’s victory in a 2016 arbitration, awarded by a tribunal established under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which refuted Beijing’s extensive claims of sovereignty and “historic rights” over the Sea. and broaden his strategic options, Duterte has throughout his presidency minimised the issue of territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and instead sought economic benefits from China. It should also strive to foster regional cooperation, for example on the question of fisheries management.Įager to loosen ties with the U.S. Given the growing risk of escalatory incidents at sea, Manila should push for a substantive and effective Code of Conduct between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to manage maritime tensions while keeping open a diplomatic channel with Beijing to reduce misunderstandings. The simmering maritime dispute between Manila and Beijing is increasingly linked to geopolitical competition between China, on one hand, and the U.S. But five years on, it appears that his pivot may not have entirely paid off. Rather than appealing to international law as a bulwark against China’s claims, President Rodrigo Duterte has instead pursued a more pragmatic approach that avoids confronting China in the hope of reaping economic benefits. The Philippines is a key player in the South China Sea territorial disputes, which are getting sharper due to China’s growing assertiveness and the claimant states’ competition over resources.
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